Anthony M. Barrett
________________________________________________________________________
PROFESSIONAL SUMMARY
Dr. Barrett is a Visiting
Scholar / Non-Resident Research Fellow with the Center for Long-Term
Cybersecurity (CLTC) at UC Berkeley, and a Senior Policy Analyst at the
Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative (BERI).
He is also Co-Founder and Director of Research of the Global
Catastrophic Risk Institute (GCRI). Dr. Barrett was recently Lead for
the Advanced Analytics – Machine Learning area in ABS Group’s Product
Development and Innovation (PD&I) Center.
Dr. Barrett is a senior risk/decision analyst, data scientist and
consultant based in the Washington, D.C. area, focusing
on risk assessment, risk management, and public policies in a wide variety
of homeland security risk areas and other catastrophic-risk domains. He has over 20 years experience on a range of
topics including machine learning / artificial intelligence systems,
cybersecurity, predictive analytics, natural language processing (NLP) / text
analytics, project management, product development, risk models, decision
analyses, qualitative and quantitative expert elicitation methods, statistical
analyses, simulation models, event consequence models, model validation and
verification, cost-effectiveness and benefit-cost analyses, and other methods
of informing risk-management policy decisions.
EDUCATION
Ph.D., Engineering & Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University (graduated May 2009, defended dissertation December 2008). Dissertation: Mathematical Modeling and Decision Analysis for Terrorism Defense: Assessing Chlorine Truck Attack Consequence and Countermeasure Cost Effectiveness. Chair: M. Granger Morgan.
Bachelor of
Science, Chemical Engineering,
PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
Senior Policy Analyst, August 2021 – Present
Berkeley Existential Risk Initiative
· Embedded as a Visiting Scholar / Non-Resident Fellow with the UC Berkeley Center for Long Term Cybersecurity.
· Engaging with National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) on development process for NIST Artificial Intelligence (AI) Risk Management Framework (RMF), focusing on issues related to AI safety and catastrophic risk management.
Lead, Advanced Analytics – Machine Learning and Senior Principal Consultant, 2020 – August 2021, Principal Technical Advisor, 2018 – 2019, Senior Risk Analyst, 2013 – 2017
ABS Consulting / ABS Group, Arlington, VA
Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, 2012 – 2013
RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA
· Conducted independent research to analyze residual risks of inadvertent and accidental nuclear war scenarios during one-year residential fellowship.
· Provided quantitative and game-theoretic modeling of escalation dynamics as member of escalation management project team for US Air Force.
· Supported preparations for tabletop exercises on alternative futures for US Strategic Command.
Co-Founder and Director of Research, 2011 – Present
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
· Overseeing GCRI research activities, contributing to GCRI strategic planning and to several GCRI research programs.
· Co-PI on project team sponsored by the Future of Life Institute (FLI) to analyze opportunities and long term risks of development pathways for extremely advanced artificial intelligence.
· PI of project team sponsored by DHS Science and Technology via the Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) to develop and apply methodology for analyzing and managing emerging-threat catastrophe risks from the use and misuse (intentional and otherwise) of rapidly developing technologies such as in synthetic biology; also Co-PI of related project on cyber vulnerabilities.
Risk Analyst, 2010 – 2012
ABS Consulting, Arlington, VA
· Provided systems engineering and technical assistance at DHS Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO), supporting risk analysis in areas such as adversary decision modeling, global supply chain security, and prioritization of detection and interdiction capability improvements.
· Performed simulation modelling of US Coast Guard domestic icebreaking missions and capabilities to support assessment of ice breaking operational risks.
· Assisted development and implementation of framework, survey, and data analyses as member of team assessing deterrence effectiveness of Unites States Coast Guard fishery law enforcement.
· Researched and developed game-theory-based analytic methodologies for adaptive adversary modeling for terrorism risk analysis, and defensive system investment decision analysis, as a member of CREATE project team sponsored by DHS Science and Technology.
· PI on US DHS Chemical Security Analysis Center (CSAC) project to develop metrics for risk impacts associated with changes in hazardous chemical processes and supply chains.
· Researched potential analytic methodology improvements for DHS Office of Risk Management and Analysis (RMA) all-hazards homeland security risk analysis program, Risk Assessment Process for Informed Decision-making (RAPID).
· Assessed risks and risk-reduction potential across a wide range of hazards as part of team supporting DHS RMA’s RAPID program.
Postdoctoral Research Associate, 2008 – 2010
· Led or contributed to risk analyses and consequence analyses in projects analyzing event risks and countermeasure benefits and costs for radiological dispersal, chlorine release, attacks on critical infrastructure, and other hazards for Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Federal Emergency Management Agency, California Energy Commission, and others.
· Initiated and led writing of successful white paper and proposal for DHS S&T Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) 10-09, Adaptive Adversary Modeling for Terrorism Risk Analysis; also contributed to several other project funding proposals.
· Led or participated in reviews of other organizations’ risk analysis and event consequence analysis methodologies.
Graduate Research Assistant, 2004 – 2008
Department of
Engineering & Public Policy,
· Estimated acute health consequences of terrorist-caused releases of chlorine and assessed fatality-reduction effectiveness of mitigation measures, using integrated chemical source term, dense-gas dispersion, dose-response, and behavioral models.
· Estimated implementation costs and life-saving cost-effectiveness for selected chlorine attack mitigation and prevention measures.
Federal Fellow to US Department of Homeland Security, 2005
American
Society of Mechanical Engineers / AAAS / DHS,
· Residential fellowship to support strategic risk analysis and infrastructure protection work at DHS.
Research Intern, 2004
Program for the
Human Environment,
· Supported ongoing research and publication.
Research Assistant, Energy, 2003
Foundation for
Feedback Learning,
·
Conducted comprehensive energy audit,
conservation and generation project for group of commercial and residential
buildings run by nonprofit in
Senior Research Analyst, 2003, Engineer / Project Engineer, 2000 - 2002
Nexant Inc., Oakland, CA; Madison, WI; White Plains, NY
· Assisted Nexant’s Petroleum Pricing and Economics Global Industry program, whose databases and reports cover major petrochemical products worldwide.
· Contributed research and analysis for a report covering technical, economic, and regulatory aspects of biodiesel fuel.
· Assisted implementation of energy efficiency performance contracting incentive programs by evaluating projects’ energy savings estimates, methodologies, and adherence to program requirements.
· Conducted pre- and post-retrofit site inspections to verify energy consumption patterns of HVAC, process, lighting, and other energy-consuming equipment.
· Accepted multiple transfers to help staff division offices starting in new locations (WI & NY).
Engineer, 1998 – 2000
Solar Solutions
LLC,
· Helped develop new product: a low cost, portable, solar, drinking water pasteurizer.
· Researched literature, user needs, competing products, and manufacturing systems.
· Designed and conducted experiments and calculations to evaluate pasteurizer designs, materials, and costs.
SOFTWARE EXPERIENCE
Programming/tool development, data analysis and visualization, and Web application development, using Python (including Django for Web development and Scikit-Learn for machine learning), R, Matlab, C++, Analytica, DecisionTools, SQL, ArcGIS, Excel, and Tableau; also frequent use of common software such as Word and PowerPoint
CERTIFICATIONS
Project Management Professional (PMP) (2020)
CompTIA Security+ (2018; renewed 2021)
PH.D. DISSERTATION
Barrett,
A.M. Mathematical
Modeling and Decision Analysis for Terrorism Defense: Assessing Chlorine Truck
Attack Consequence and Countermeasure Cost Effectiveness, Doctoral
Dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, May, 2009.
PUBLICATIONS
Journal Articles (refereed)
Barrett, A.M., “Value of Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) Information: Cost Effectiveness-Based Approach for GCR Reduction”, Decision Analysis, 2017, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 187-203.
Barrett, A.M., and S.D. Baum, “A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis”, Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, 2017, Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 397-414.
Barrett, A. M., S. D. Baum and K. R. Hostetler, “Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia”, Science and Global Security, 2013, Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 106-133.
Barrett, A.M. and E.A. Casman, “Should Cities Invest in Sheltering-in-Place Measures against Chlorine Truck Attacks by Terrorists?”, Risk Analysis, 2013, Vol. 33, No. 5, pp. 931-944.
Giesecke, J. A., W. J. Burns, A. Barrett, E. Bayrak, A. Rose, P. Slovic, M. Suher, “Assessment of the
Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE analysis of resource loss
and behavioral effects of an RDD attack scenario”, Risk Analysis, 2012, Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 583-600.
Barrett, A.M. and P.J. Adams, “Chlorine Truck Attack
Consequences and Mitigation”, Risk
Analysis, 2011, Vol. 31, No. 8, pp. 1243-1259.
Barrett, A.M., “Cost Effectiveness of On-site Chlorine
Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention”, Decision Analysis, 2010, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 366-377.
Ausubel, J.H., I.K. Wernick, A.M. Barrett, and P.E. Waggoner, “Industrial ecology for leverage to let loose less cadmium”, Progress in Industrial Ecology, 2006, Vol. 3, No. 6, pp. 522-537.
Book Chapters
Barrett, A.M.,
and S.D. Baum. (2017). “Risk Analysis
and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and
Development Process”, in The
Technological Singularity: Managing the Journey, Springer.
Baum, S.D., and A.M. Barrett. (2017). “The Most Extreme Risks: Global Catastrophes”, in Risk in Extreme Environments: Preparing, Avoiding Mitigating, and Managing, edited by Vicki Bier, Farnham, UK: Gower.
Conference Papers
Barrett, A.M., “Modeling and Analysis for Robust Risk Management: PortSec Resource Allocation Decision Support Framework”, in Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation and Analysis for Homeland Security (MSAHS-2010), March 17-18, 2010, Washington, DC.
Orosz, M.D., C.
Southwell, A.M. Barrett, N.O. Bakir, J. Chen, and
Giesecke, J.A., W.J. Burns, A. Barrett, E. Bayrak, A. Rose, and M. Suher, “Regional Economic Damage from Catastrophic Events: Evaluation of Resource Loss and Fear Effects of a RDD Attack Scenario”, in 56th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, November 18-21, 2009, San Francisco, California.
In Preparation / Working Papers
Barrett, A.M., D.
Hendrycks, J. Newman, and B. Nonnecke, “Towards AI Standards Addressing AI
Catastrophic Risks: Actionable-Guidance and Roadmap Recommendations for the
NIST AI Risk Management Framework”.
Barrett, A.M., “Mind the Gaps (in AI Safety): Managing Catastrophic Risks in International Competition to Develop Advanced AI”.
Online Reports
Barrett, A.M. (2016, June). “False Alarms, True Dangers? Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S. – Russian Nuclear War”, RAND Corporation report. http://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE191.html
Barrett, A.M. (2014, January). “Analyzing Current and Future Catastrophic Risks from Emerging-Threat Technologies”. Research synopsis for CREATE Homeland Security Center, University of Southern California. http://research.create.usc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1062&context=current_synopses
Unpublished Reports
Barrett, A.M. (2014, July). “Final Report on System for Evaluation of Emerging-Technology Risks – Synthetic Biology (SEER-SynBio); Volume 1: Methodology, Volume 2: Synbio Scenarios and Indicators”. Prepared for CREATE Homeland Security Center, University of Southern California and US Department of Homeland Security.
CREATE. (2011, June). “Adaptive Adversary Modeling for Terrorism Risk Analysis: Final Report”. Prepared by National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) team for US Department of Homeland Security.
Barrett, A.M., H. Rosoff, A.G. Newton, and I. Maya. (2010, June). “RDD Attack Risk Analysis and Countermeasure Investment Decision Analysis”. Prepared for US Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Barrett, A.M, N.O. Bakir, and I. Maya. (2009, August). “Evaluation of US Coast Guard Terrorism Risk and Decision Analysis Models and Processes for Port, Waterways and Coastal Security”. Homeland Security Center for Risk & Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA.
Vugrin, E.D., D.E. Warren, M.A. Ehlen, A.Z. Rose, and A.M. Barrett. (2009, August). “Chemical Supply Chain and Resilience Project: A Resilience Definition for Use in Economic and Critical Infrastructure Resilience Analysis”. Prepared for Science and Technology Directorate of US Department of Homeland Security.
CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS
Barrett, A.M. and G. Ackerman (2019, December). Risk-Based Prioritization of Technologies in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction. Presented at Society for Risk Analysis 2019 Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.
Ackerman, G. and A.M. Barrett (2019, December). Elicitation of Expert Judgment for Technology Identification and Characterization. Presented at Society for Risk Analysis 2019 Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.
Sin, S., Ackerman, G., Barrett, A.M. and M. Maxwell (2019, December). Integrated System for Discovery of Emerging Technologies in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction. Presented at Society for Risk Analysis 2019 Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.
Maxwell, M., Bills, A., Schmidt, B., and A.M. Barrett (2019, December). Machine Learning Models for Technology Identification and Characterization. Presented at Society for Risk Analysis 2019 Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.
Barrett, A.M. (2019, December). Value Alignment Strategies for AI Catastrophe Risk Management. Poster presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.
Barrett, A.M. (2019, February). Machine Learning / Artificial Intelligence Predictive Analytics for Natural Hazard Modeling. Presented to Military Operations Research Society National Security Risk Analysis Community of Practice, Washington, DC.
Barrett, A.M. (2018, March). Value of Information to Inform Catastrophe Risk Management Decisions. Presented to MORS National Security Risk Community of Practice, Washington, DC.
Barrett, A.M. (2017, December). HAZOP Based Emerging-Technology Scenario Hazard Screening. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.
Barrett, A.M. (2017, December). Towards Integrated, Comprehensive Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risks to Inform Risk Reduction. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.
Barrett, A.M. (2017, May). Modeling Pathways to Artificial Superintelligence Catastrophe for Risk and Decision Analysis. Presented at the Fifth Annual Conference on Governance of Emerging Technologies, O’Connor College of Law, Arizona State University, Arizona.
Barrett, A.M. and S.D. Baum (2015, December). Analyzing Long Term Risks of Artificial Intelligence Catastrophe. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.
Barrett, A.M. (2014, December). Analyzing Current and Future Catastrophic Risks from Emerging-Threat Technologies. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado.
Barrett, A.M. (2014, June). Value of GCR Information: Cost Effective Reduction of Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs). Presented at the Advances in Decision Analysis Conference, Washington, DC.
Barrett, A.M. (2013, December). Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Baltimore, Maryland.
Barrett, A.M. (2012, October). Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia. Presented at the Program on Nuclear Issues Fall Conference, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC.
Barrett, A.M. (2011, December). Adversary Modeling and Defensive Decision Analysis for Robust Terrorism Risk Management. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Charleston, South Carolina.
Barrett, A.M. and S.D. Baum (2011, December). Towards Consensus on Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction Objectives. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Charleston, South Carolina.
Barrett, A. M., V. Bier, T. Jamshidi, C. Wang, S. Hora, R. John, I. Maya and H. Rosoff (2011, September). Adaptive Adversary Modeling for Terrorism Risk Management. Presented at the Fifth Annual Conference of the Security Analysis and Risk Management Association, Arlington, Virginia.
Barrett, A.M. (2010, March). Modeling and Analysis for Robust Risk Management: PortSec Resource Allocation Decision Support Framework. Presented at the Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation and Analysis for Homeland Security, 2010, Washington, DC.
Barrett, A.M. (2009, December). Port Security (PortSec) Risk Analysis and Resource Allocation I: Methodology. Poster presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Baltimore, Maryland.
Orosz, M.D., C.
Southwell, A.M. Barrett, N.O. Bakir, J. Chen, and
Barrett, A.M.
(2009, April). Assessing Chlorine Truck Attack Consequence and Countermeasure Cost
Effectiveness. Presented at the
Barrett, A.M.
(2007, December). Cost-Effectiveness of Mitigation Against Terrorist Release of a Toxic
Industrial Chemical. Presented at
the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting,
Barrett, A.M.
(2007, November). Cost Effectiveness of Mitigation Against a Terrorist Release of a Toxic
Industrial Chemical. Presented at
the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences Annual
Meeting,
Barrett, A.M.
(2006, December). Estimated Acute Health Consequences and Effectiveness of Consequence
Reduction Strategies for Terrorist-Caused Urban Releases of a Toxic Industrial
Chemical. Presented at the Society
for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting,
Barrett, A.M.
(2006, November). Estimated Consequences and Mitigation Effectiveness for Release of a
Toxic Industrial Chemical. Presented
at the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences Annual
Meeting,
Barrett, A.M.
(2005, December). Terrorist-Caused Release of Industrial Toxic-Inhalation-Hazard
Chemicals: Lessons and Limits of Risk Assessment. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis
Annual Meeting,
HONORS
Stanton Foundation-funded Nuclear Security Fellow, RAND Corporation, 2012 – 2013
National Science Foundation-funded participant in Debating
Science workshop and graduate course, University of Montana, 2007
Federal Fellow to US Department of Homeland Security, American Society of Mechanical Engineers / American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2005
Regents
Scholar,
MEMBERSHIPS
Society for Risk Analysis (SRA)
Project Management Institute (PMI)
InterNational Committee for Information Technology
Standards (INCITS) Artificial Intelligence and ISO/IEC JTC 1/SC 42 Artificial Intelligence
ACTIVITIES AND SERVICE
Peer reviewer: Risk Analysis; Futures
Elected chair, Security and Defense Specialty Group, 2016-2017, Society for Risk Analysis
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2019, Session W4-C, “Early Warning Systems for Emerging or Disruptive Technologies in Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction”
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2017, Session “Conflict Scenarios and Global Catastrophic Risks”
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2016, Session “Current and Future Global Catastrophic Risks”
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2015, Session M4-B, “Quantifying Armed Conflict and Social Unrest”
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2014, Session T2-A, “Global Catastrophic Risk”
Session chair, Advances in Decision Analysis Conference, 2014, Session 3A, “Behavioral Decision Making and Economics”
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2013, Session W3-F, “Global Catastrophic Risk”
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2011, Session T4-I, “Global Catastrophic Risks”
Panel moderator, Security Analysis and Risk Management Association Fifth Annual Conference, 2011, “Adaptive Adversary Modeling for Homeland Security Applications”
Session co-chair, 12th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems, 2009, Session WeCT2, “Traffic Safety”
Founding coordinator, Security Reading Group, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 2007 – 2008
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2007, Session W2-H, “Decision Analysis Support for Emerging Risks/Homeland Security”
Technical
assistance (pro bono): Consultation to New York Police Department and US
Department of Homeland Security after chlorine attacks in
President, Environmental Coalition at UCSD, 1997 – 1998
Chair, Muir College Environmental Committee (UCSD), 1996 – 1997
Volunteer and Assistant Leader, Wilderness Orientation / Outback Adventures (UCSD), 1996 – 1997