Anthony M. Barrett
Dr. Barrett is a risk and decision analyst based in the Washington, D.C. area, focusing on risk assessment, risk management, and public policies in a wide variety of homeland security risk areas and other catastrophic-risk domains. He has significant experience in developing and implementing risk models, decision analyses, qualitative and quantitative expert elicitation methods, simulation models, event consequence models, cost-effectiveness analyses, and other analyses to inform risk-management decisions.
Ph.D., Engineering & Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University (graduated May 2009, defended dissertation December 2008). Dissertation: Mathematical Modeling and Decision Analysis for Terrorism Defense: Assessing Chlorine Truck Attack Consequence and Countermeasure Cost Effectiveness. Chair: M. Granger Morgan.
Science, Chemical Engineering,
Senior Risk Analyst, 2013 – Present
ABS Consulting, Arlington, VA
· Leading or contributing research on a wide variety of potential risk analysis methodology improvements, and supporting other risk analysis efforts, for US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Infrastructure Security Compliance Division (ISCD) in implementing Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards (CFATS) regulations.
· Assisted consideration of game-theoretic adversary modeling and Monte Carlo uncertainty modeling approaches as member of teams supporting Unites States Coast Guard and Transportation Security Administration risk modeling.
Co-Founder and Director of Research, 2011 – Present
Global Catastrophic Risk Institute
· Overseeing GCRI research activities, contributing to GCRI strategic planning and to several of GCRI research programs.
Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow, 2012 – 2013
RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA
· Conducted independent research to analyze residual risks of inadvertent and accidental nuclear war scenarios during one-year residential fellowship.
· Provided quantitative and game-theoretic modeling of escalation dynamics as member of escalation management project team for US Air Force.
· Supported preparations for tabletop exercises on alternative futures for US Strategic Command.
Risk Analyst, 2010 – 2012
ABS Consulting, Arlington, VA
· Provided systems engineering and technical assistance at DHS Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO), supporting risk analysis in areas such as adversary decision modeling, global supply chain security, and prioritization of detection and interdiction capability improvements.
· Performed simulation modelling of US Coast Guard domestic icebreaking missions and capabilities to support assessment of ice breaking operational risks.
· Assisted development and implementation of framework, survey, and data analyses as member of team assessing deterrence effectiveness of Unites States Coast Guard fishery law enforcement.
· Researched and developed game-theory-based analytic methodologies for adaptive adversary modeling for terrorism risk analysis, and defensive system investment decision analysis, as a member of CREATE project team sponsored by DHS Science and Technology.
· Principal Investigator on US DHS Chemical Security Analysis Center (CSAC) project to develop metrics for risk impacts associated with changes in hazardous chemical processes and supply chains.
· Researched potential analytic methodology improvements for DHS Office of Risk Management and Analysis (RMA) all-hazards homeland security risk analysis program, Risk Assessment Process for Informed Decision-making (RAPID).
· Assessed risks and risk-reduction potential across a wide range of hazards as part of team supporting DHS RMA’s RAPID program.
Postdoctoral Research Associate, 2008 – 2010
· Led or contributed to risk analyses and consequence analyses in projects analyzing event risks and countermeasure benefits and costs for radiological dispersal, chlorine release, and other hazards for Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, Federal Emergency Management Agency, California Energy Commission, and others.
· Initiated and led writing of successful white paper and proposal for DHS S&T Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) 10-09, Adaptive Adversary Modeling for Terrorism Risk Analysis; also contributed to several other project funding proposals.
· Led or participated in reviews of other organizations’ risk analysis and event consequence analysis methodologies.
Graduate Research Assistant, 2004 – 2008
Engineering & Public Policy,
· Estimated acute health consequences of terrorist-caused releases of chlorine and assessed fatality-reduction effectiveness of mitigation measures, using integrated chemical source term, dense-gas dispersion, dose-response, and behavioral models.
· Estimated implementation costs and life-saving cost-effectiveness for selected chlorine attack mitigation and prevention measures.
Federal Fellow to US Department of Homeland Security, 2005
Society of Mechanical Engineers / AAAS / DHS,
· Residential fellowship to support strategic risk analysis and infrastructure protection work at DHS.
Research Intern, 2004
Program for the
· Supported ongoing research and publication.
Research Assistant, Energy, 2003
Conducted comprehensive energy audit,
conservation and generation project for group of commercial and residential
buildings run by nonprofit in
Engineer, Project Engineer, Senior Research Analyst, 2000 – 2003
Nexant Inc., Oakland, CA; Madison, WI; White Plains, NY
· Assisted Nexant’s Petroleum Pricing and Economics Global Industry program, whose databases and reports cover major petrochemical products worldwide.
· Contributed research and analysis for a report covering technical, economic, and regulatory aspects of biodiesel fuel.
· Assisted implementation of energy efficiency performance contracting incentive programs by evaluating projects’ energy savings estimates, methodologies, and adherence to program requirements.
· Conducted pre- and post-retrofit site inspections to verify energy consumption patterns of HVAC, process, lighting, and other energy-consuming equipment.
· Accepted multiple transfers to help staff division offices starting in new locations (WI & NY).
Engineer, 1998 – 2000
· Helped develop new product: a low cost, portable, solar, drinking water pasteurizer.
· Researched literature, user needs, competing products, and manufacturing systems.
· Designed and conducted experiments and calculations to evaluate pasteurizer designs, materials, and costs.
Analytica, Matlab, DecisionTools, C++, SAS, Mathematica, R, and Microsoft Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Project
Barrett, A.M. Mathematical Modeling and Decision Analysis for Terrorism Defense: Assessing Chlorine Truck Attack Consequence and Countermeasure Cost Effectiveness, Doctoral Dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, May, 2009.
Journal Articles (refereed)
Barrett, A. M., S. D. Baum and K. R. Hostetler, “Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia”, Science and Global Security, 2013. Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 106-133.
Barrett, A.M. and E.A. Casman, “Should Cities Invest in Sheltering-in-Place Measures against Chlorine Truck Attacks by Terrorists?”, Risk Analysis, 2013. Vol. 33, No. 5, pp. 931-944.
Giesecke, J. A., W. J. Burns, A. Barrett, E. Bayrak, A. Rose, P. Slovic, M. Suher, “Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of an RDD attack scenario”, Risk Analysis, 2012. Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 583-600.
Barrett, A.M. and P.J. Adams, “Chlorine Truck Attack Consequences and Mitigation”, Risk Analysis, 2011. Vol. 31, No. 8, pp. 1243-1259.
Barrett, A.M., “Cost Effectiveness of On-site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention”, Decision Analysis, 2010, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 366-377.
Ausubel, J.H., I.K. Wernick, A.M. Barrett, and P.E. Waggoner, “Industrial ecology for leverage to let loose less cadmium”, Progress in Industrial Ecology, 2006, Vol. 3, No. 6, pp. 522-537.
Barrett, A.M., “Modeling and Analysis for Robust Risk Management: PortSec Resource Allocation Decision Support Framework”, in Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation and Analysis for Homeland Security (MSAHS-2010), March 17-18, 2010, Washington, DC.
Orosz, M.D., C. Southwell, A.M. Barrett, N.O. Bakir, J. Chen, and I. Maya. (2009, September). “PortSec: Port Security Risk Management and Resource Allocation System”, in 12th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems, September 2-4, 2009, Redondo Beach, California, pp. 135-142.
Giesecke, J.A., W.J. Burns, A. Barrett, E. Bayrak, A. Rose, and M. Suher, “Regional Economic Damage from Catastrophic Events: Evaluation of Resource Loss and Fear Effects of a RDD Attack Scenario”, in 56th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, November 18-21, 2009, San Francisco, California.
Accepted for Publication
Barrett, A.M. (forthcoming). “False Alarms, True Dangers? Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S. – Russian Nuclear War”, RAND Corporation report.
Barrett, A.M., and S.D. Baum. (forthcoming). “Risk Analysis and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and Development Process”, in The Technological Singularity: Managing the Journey, Springer.
Baum, S.D., and A.M. Barrett. (forthcoming) “The Most Extreme Risks: Global Catastrophes”, in Extreme Events, edited by Vicki Bier, Farnham, UK: Gower.
Submitted for Publication
Barrett, A.M., and S.D. Baum, “Mapping AI Catastrophe Pathways: Using Fault Tree and Influence Diagram Modeling for Long Term Artificial Intelligence Risk, Forecasting and Policy Analysis”, under review at Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence.
In Preparation / Working Papers
Barrett, A.M., “Value of GCR Information: Cost Effectiveness-Based Approach for Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) Reduction”, for submission to Decision Analysis.
Barrett, A.M., “Towards Consensus on Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction Objectives”, for submission to Futures.
Barrett, A.M. (2014, January). “Analyzing Current and Future Catastrophic Risks from Emerging-Threat Technologies”. Research synopsis for CREATE Homeland Security Center, University of Southern California. http://research.create.usc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1062&context=current_synopses
Barrett, A.M., H. Rosoff, A.G. Newton, and I. Maya. (2010, June). “RDD Attack Risk Analysis and Countermeasure Investment Decision Analysis”. Prepared for US Federal Emergency Management Agency.
Barrett, A.M, N.O. Bakir, and I. Maya. (2009, August). “Evaluation of US Coast Guard Terrorism Risk and Decision Analysis Models and Processes for Port, Waterways and Coastal Security”. Homeland Security Center for Risk & Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA.
Vugrin, E.D., D.E. Warren, M.A. Ehlen, A.Z. Rose, and A.M. Barrett. (2009, August). “Chemical Supply Chain and Resilience Project: A Resilience Definition for Use in Economic and Critical Infrastructure Resilience Analysis”. Prepared for Science and Technology Directorate of U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
Barrett, A.M. and S.D. Baum (2015, December). Analyzing Long Term Risks of Artificial Intelligence Catastrophe. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.
Barrett, A.M. (2014, December). Analyzing Current and Future Catastrophic Risks from Emerging-Threat Technologies. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado.
Barrett, A.M. (2014, June). Value of GCR Information: Cost Effective Reduction of Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs). Presented at the Advances in Decision Analysis Conference, Washington, DC.
Barrett, A.M. (2013, December). Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Baltimore, Maryland.
Barrett, A.M. (2012, October). Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia. Presented at the Program on Nuclear Issues Fall Conference, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC.
Barrett, A.M. (2011, December). Adversary Modeling and Defensive Decision Analysis for Robust Terrorism Risk Management. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Charleston, South Carolina.
Barrett, A.M. and S.D. Baum (2011, December). Towards Consensus on Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction Objectives. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Charleston, South Carolina.
Barrett, A. M., V. Bier, T. Jamshidi, C. Wang, S. Hora, R. John, I. Maya and H. Rosoff (2011, September). Adaptive Adversary Modeling for Terrorism Risk Management. Presented at the Fifth Annual Conference of the Security Analysis and Risk Management Association, Arlington, Virginia.
Barrett, A.M. (2010, March). Modeling and Analysis for Robust Risk Management: PortSec Resource Allocation Decision Support Framework. Presented at the Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation and Analysis for Homeland Security, 2010, Washington, DC.
Barrett, A.M. (2009, December). Port Security (PortSec) Risk Analysis and Resource Allocation I: Methodology. Poster presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Baltimore, Maryland.
Orosz, M.D., C. Southwell, A.M. Barrett, N.O. Bakir, J. Chen, and I. Maya. (2009, September). PortSec: Port Security Risk Management and Resource Allocation System. Presented at the 12th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems, Redondo Beach, California.
Barrett, A.M. (2009, April). Assessing Chlorine Truck Attack Consequence and Countermeasure Cost Effectiveness. Presented at the Los Alamos National Laboratory Risk Symposium, Santa Fe, New Mexico. Awarded Risk Symposium travel funding.
(2007, December). Cost-Effectiveness of Mitigation Against
Terrorist Release of a Toxic Industrial Chemical. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis
(2007, November). Cost Effectiveness of Mitigation Against a
Terrorist Release of a Toxic Industrial Chemical. Presented at the Institute for Operations
Research and the Management Sciences Annual Meeting,
(2006, December). Estimated Acute Health Consequences and
Effectiveness of Consequence Reduction Strategies for Terrorist-Caused Urban
Releases of a Toxic Industrial Chemical. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis
(2006, November). Estimated Consequences and Mitigation
Effectiveness for Release of a Toxic Industrial Chemical. Presented at the Institute for Operations
Research and the Management Sciences Annual Meeting,
(2005, December). Terrorist-Caused Release of Industrial Toxic-Inhalation-Hazard
Chemicals: Lessons and Limits of Risk Assessment. Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis
Stanton Foundation-funded Nuclear Security Fellow, RAND Corporation, 2012 – 2013
National Science Foundation-funded participant in Debating Science workshop and graduate course, University of Montana, 2007
Federal Fellow to US Department of Homeland Security, American Society of Mechanical Engineers / American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2005
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
Society for Risk Analysis (SRA)
Program on Nuclear Issues (PONI), Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
ACTIVITIES AND SERVICE
Peer reviewer: Risk Analysis; Futures
Elected chair, Security and Defense Specialty Group, 2016-2017, Society for Risk Analysis
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2015, Session M4-B, “Quantifying Armed Conflict and Social Unrest”
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2014, Session T2-A, “Global Catastrophic Risk”
Session chair, Advances in Decision Analysis Conference, 2014, Session 3A, “Behavioral Decision Making and Economics”
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2013, Session W3-F, “Global Catastrophic Risk”
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2011, Session T4-I, “Global Catastrophic Risks”
Panel moderator, Security Analysis and Risk Management Association Fifth Annual Conference, 2011, “Adaptive Adversary Modeling for Homeland Security Applications”
Session co-chair, 12th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems, 2009, Session WeCT2, “Traffic Safety”
Founding coordinator, Security Reading Group, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 2007 – 2008
Session chair, Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, 2007, Session W2-H, “Decision Analysis Support for Emerging Risks/Homeland Security”
assistance (pro bono): Consultation to New York Police Department and US
Department of Homeland Security after chlorine attacks in
President, Environmental Coalition at UCSD, 1997 – 1998
Chair, Muir College Environmental Committee (UCSD), 1996 – 1997
Volunteer and Assistant Leader, Wilderness Orientation / Outback Adventures (UCSD), 1996 – 1997